| 1. Title: "Jump-starting" development: technoecological constraints, hyperurbanization and agglomeration economies. Author: Crenshaw EM Source: [Unpublished] 1993. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Cincinnati, Ohio, April 1-3, 1993. 38 p. Abstract: Overurbanization (Over-U) may be a form of "jump starting the economy" of countries that are disadvantaged in terms of economic development, capital formation, and population distribution, and may contribute to social and economic modernization. Social organization serves a function as population growth increases population density, which increases production and reduces competition for improving survivability. More research is needed on how population pressure and economic competition interact. A reversal of conventional wisdom, that "evenness" or "articulation" are essential in economic development planning, is needed. This investigation is concerned with examining the relationship between Over-U and development. The following hypotheses are postulated: that higher population density in rural areas is related 1) to lower growth of hyperurbanization, and 2) to a faster rate of economic growth. Foreign investment and an urban bias in public policy supports hyperurbanization and lagging economic growth. Over-U is self-limiting, a symptom of early development and poor capital formation, and a product of poor rural social organization, and is an adaptation that involves short-term costs for long-term gain. 63 nations are analyzed using ordinary least squares. Dependent variables are growth of Over-U (1965 residuals subtracted from 1985 residuals) and annual average percentage change in real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita during 1970-85. The first model specifies that Over-U is a function of the level of Over-U in 1965, the log of energy consumption/capita (1965), the quadratic of the log of energy consumption per capita, the log of agricultural density (1960), the rate of foreign investment (1967-73), the rate of gross domestic investment (1965-75), and the Gini coefficient of sectoral inequality (1965). The second model of GDP is specified. The results show that level of Over-U in 1965 is negatively reacted to the growth of Over-U during 1965-86. Growth of Over-U is rapid at low to medium levels of development. In sum, over 33% of variance in the growth of Over-U is explained by modernization and ecological effects. Economic growth is a function of the level and growth of Over-U, the rate of both foreign and domestic investment, agricultural density, and market size (to some extent). Language: English Keywords: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDIES | THEORETICAL STUDIES | URBANIZATION | ECONOMIC FACTORS | ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT | INVESTMENTS | AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT | Urban Population Distribution | Population Distribution | Geographic Factors | Population | Financial Activities | Rural Development Document Number: 082907 |
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